Warren is a frequent contributor to the media, including participating in the 2013 Barron’s MLP Roundtable discussion, the Wall Street Journal, CNBC, and RealVision. His research combines proprietary fundamental, technical and macro indicators to identify major investment themes and market trends affecting capital markets. In that role, he built the firm’s commodity-related studies, models, and unique indicators. There inflation models and problems with the bond market as a safe haven.īefore founding 3Fourteen Research, Warren led Ned Davis Research’s Energy and Commodity strategy.Global energy demand and why continued demand growth in petroleum is almost certain.Their recession model and why it’s increasingly worsening.Examining past bear market rallies for context with today’s markets.Bonds may no longer be a safe haven, and the coming years are likely to be more difficult. Stocks and bonds have become more correlated than many investors expect. Lastly, Warren outlines where inflation will head over the short, medium, and long term. He discusses why they recommend large cap Canadian oil producers. Warren discusses the key features of their gold model, which helps them determine good entry and exit points. Bottom line, the era of cheap oil appears to be over, which will continue to pressure inflation. This transition has been haphazardly organized. We can only electrify and expand the grid so quickly. They believe demand will continue to grown until at least 2040. They have conducted some analysis of peak hydrocarbon usage. Much of the world is going to face further energy shortages. This is due to a lack of infrastructure, pipelines, and shipping options. Russia will have a hard time transitioning from Western to Eastern buyers. Governments may choose to balance shortfalls with energy with similar lockdowns. The playbook we saw with Covid could become a policy tool for managing global energy requirements. The high costs of refined petroleum products like gasoline is affecting consumers, but most have been fairly flush with cash. Energy and housing components are sixty percent of the CPI. He discusses their outlook for inflation and why housing is likely to slowly burn higher. Most of the yield curves are inverting, and inversions often signal a recession in 16 to 24 months. They use a number of factors including various credit spreads, rate of change, equity market returns, and analysis of the yield curve. Their model for determining future recessions is worsening. The Fed may be on the verge of making a policy mistake. Yield curve inversions are often correlated with a coming recession. This should give investors caution.īond markets have been signalling for some time that inflation will be transitory. However, the difference this time is we may be facing a recession and the Fed seems likely to raise rates further. Usually, when we see these types of moves, the bear market is almost over. They examined forty-nine historic rallies, and six of them we’re larger than today. In our current case, that would be, 3066 on the S&P 500. These rallies have to fail and head below previous lows. Warren explains how they attempted to map out how bear market rally’s typically behave. Warren is cofounder of 3Fourteen Research.
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